Vinexpo and the future

Vinexpo is a monumental event in France, a bi-annual trade show that's essentially hosted by Bordeaux's equivalent of the Chamber of Commerce. With over 2,000 exhibitors and 50,000 visitors its a sight to see. Its an industry event that allows those who have underspent their travel and entertainment budget to catch up quickly. Rent a chateau, eat out every night. What a party, sorry I'll miss it this year.

Anyway, the organizers have produced some very interesting statistics that will be presented during the event. Among them:

Production

• Italian (#1 producer) and French (#2) production of wine will stay flat through 2008
• Spain (#3) will grow 4.2% between 2004 and 2008 and will approach, but not overtake France
• The US (#4) will grow 6.3% over the same period, but will still be only 50% of Spain by 2008

Consumption

• Worldwide consumption will grow 6% from 2004 to 2008, but surpluses of supply will continue in certain countries
• While the US is currently the 4th largest consumer of wine by volume, it will grow to be #1 by 2008, passing Germany, France and Italy on the way, growing 28.6%
• France will decline by 7.2%, Germany will grow by 9.2%, and Italy grow by 2.4%
• The US has been the largest consumer (by value) since the 1990's
• Actual value growth from 1999 to 2003 was 25.2% for the US, -5.8% for France, 19% for the UK 9.7% for Germany, and 2.9% for Italy
• By 2008 total US wine revenues will be greater than Germany, Italy and France combined!!!
• Taken together, the US, UK, and Germany represent 40% of the world's market for imported wine by value

So what's it all mean? Well, I think its pretty clear that if you rely on the old-world markets, you better be prepared for a dogfight for market share. If you are thinking of exporting to the US (and you should if you're not already), you better be able to market your wines well (style, branding, etc.) and have them tailored for the US market.